Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Anite Signals Strong Growth for 4G and LTE Spending

Ixia $XXIA and Spirent $SPT investors got an early read across from wireless and handset testing company Anite $AIE. Anite’s gave a final results statement and gave the stock market an update on how 4G and LTE deployment is taking place.  In summary on their wireless division,

‘2011 saw improved financial performance within the Wireless division, driven by both customer spending recovery and organic business growth. We believe the recovery phase is complete and that its 2012 results will be driven by business growth alone. Wireless is better positioned to take advantage of its existing and new markets than in the past and we believe that the LTE opportunity is also likely to be deeper and longer lasting than previous technologies.’
In addition, Anite talked of increased investment in 2G and 3G products as well as LTE. This augers well for the likes of Alcatel, Spirent and Ixia.

However, the key to longer term growth is the demand pull from the use of smart phones with data demanding functionality. This is particularly relevant when IP and video data is increasingly being used because it is bandwidth intensive. Naturally, this puts pressure on the network operators and handset manufacturers and testing solution providers will benefit if their customers are under pressure to invest in new technologies.

Interestingly, Anite mentioned that the demand for legacy systems has..
‘proved more sustained than expected and we continue to invest in this area.  However our main focus is currently on LTE, although the pace of change is accelerating and we are already planning for the next generation.’

Growth in the Wireless Market
 Anite referred to the longer term demand drivers here
‘Sales of smartphones are expected to grow 61% year-on-year- making the market ever more complex. While there is little growth in voice and text in developed markets, mobile data traffic is expected to grow by 6.3 exabytes (1 billion gigabytes) a month by 2015, a 25-fold increase over 2010

Industry Handset Production Forecast (m)20102015
2G GSM700300
3G (WCDMA)400950

LTE is being deployed quicker than 3G ever was, simply because the adoption of smart phones is driving the need for a network upgrade. This is distinct from the early 2000’s when 3G was rolled out before the handset technology existed to take advantage of the network. It really is different this time.

In general, this is a very positive update and augers well for Ixia, Spirent and Alcatel. There doesn’t appear to be any slowdown in network upgrades and legacy system sales are holding up well.

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