Monday, July 25, 2011

Sinnerschrader Offers High Yield Plus Growth

Sinnerschrader is a micro-cap German listed company with huge potential to see a substantial stock price appreciation in the next few years. The transition from high street retail towards e-commerce is still ongoing and represents a key secular growth area in the economy and, interactive agencies like Sinnerschrader look set to benefit. Ebay $EBAY buying interactive agency GSI Commerce can be seen as an affirmation of how good prospects look for this industry. It is an interesting stock to do an equity research report on because it offers a blend of strong growth plus high cash generation, with a very strong balance sheet. There is even a high dividend yield too!

Sinnerschrader is an Exciting Growth Stock

The company is one of the top 10 interactive agencies in Germany and currently receives 89% of its revenues from ‘interactive marketing’. This involves developing and marketing internet based activities for a range of companies. In the past, Sinnerschrader has been highly dependent on a few large customers, however this risk is being reduced following the strategy of pursuing growth in new customers. I will discuss this again later. The other two segments are ‘interactive media’ which involves buying online ads for their clients and ‘interactive commerce’ whereby Sinnerschrader develops online shops for its clients.

The important thing to understand with this type of business is that it is relationship based. This carries risks- the staff could walk away with some clients- but also offers great reward as once a client is onboard the opportunity for a recurring ‘annuity’ type income stream is very strong. Indeed, the good news is that Sinnerschrader is aggressively pursuing new customer acquisitions which should lead to increased cash flows in time.

Growth Strategy

Not only are existing markets looking strong, but I believe the opportunity for future growth from areas like mobile applications is very good. Increasingly, the convergence between telecommunications and internet usage is being manifest in the growth of smart phone usage. Email and social networking are the ‘killer app’ for the internet and smart phones are capable of supplanting computers in this aspect. All of which, will mean increased demand for agencies that can integrate clients online offerings towards mobile. In addition, if mobiles are going to be the next payment device than there is an obvious synergy in companies marketing themselves to the customer via mobiles.

Sinnerschrader Results Statement and Stock Evaluation
The company gave its Q3 results on the 14th of July and they can be read here. I was pleased to see that Sinnerschrader is chasing growth, albeit at the detriment of reducing initial margins. With the new emphasis on growth, analyst estimates for revenue growth for this year are 25% to E30m with further revenue growth of 17% for next year. Ebitda for the next three years is forecast at E3.5m, E4.6m and E5.5m respectively. Now considering that the Enterprise Value of Sinnerschrader (stock price of E2.35) is E20.1m than on an EV/Ebitda basis this stock is far too cheap. Similarly, despite the working capital requirements necessary to fund the growth in the business, analysts have Sinnerschrader generating nearly 7% of its Enterprise Value in Free Cash Flow. Again, this is far too cheap for a company set to grow EPS by around 30% pa for the next two years.

Sinnerschrader trades on a forecast forward (Aug 2012) PE ratio of 10.7x and forecast dividend yields of  4.2% and 7.5% for 2011 and 2012 respectively.  I think this is too cheap.

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