Market Conditions Getting Better for Navistar, Cummins and Paccar?

Shares in truck engine manufacturer Cummins  have continued their strong run this year with the stock up around 9.5% year to date. Moreover, the indications from the industry are that North American conditions improved over the quarter, and key customers like Navistar  and Paccar  are also seeing improvements. With that said, what are the risks and rewards of buying Cummins stock today?

North American demand improving
Cummins reports out of four separate segments, with engine and components (mainly trucking) being the most important by far. A breakout of its earnings before interest, or EBIT, demonstrates what really matters.

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What Alcoa's Results Mean to Paccar, Cummins and Ingersoll-Rand

Alcoa's  results and guidance always serve as a useful indicator for what sectors of the industrial economy are going to do well in the coming quarters. With regard to its latest results, the upgrade to its full-year end demand for the North American heavy truck and trailer market is obviously good news for truck maker Paccar   and engine manufacturer Cummins. In addition, Alcoa gave a positive outlook for the U.S. construction market; this should interest shareholders in Ingersoll-Rand. Despite the recent market sell-off, there is some good news out there.

Alcoa updates the market
The following table provides an update on Alcoa's end market guidance for 2014 vs. 2013. The sections in green are where guidance was upgraded from the previous quarter.

 

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Cummins, Navistar and Paccar: why the Outlook for US Trucking is Better in 2014

If there is such a thing as an investing based game show, then heavy engine manufacturer Cummins  is a strong candidate for a trivia question. The stock is up over 30% in the last year, after recording flat revenue and an operating income decline of 6.7% in 2013.  In addition, customers in its truck engine segment Paccar and Navistar (also a rival) are up around 40% and 50% respectively. What exactly is going on, and can it continue?

Cummins, Paccar, and Navistar
The answer to the trivia question above isn't as obvious as it may seem. A surging stock market has certainly helped pull these stocks higher, but they also rose for some stock-specific reasons. The main thing they have in common, is that the outlook for the North American trucking market is better than in 2013.

 

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